RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
Time to revisit catastrophic planning - USGS Arkstorm Scenario - 2010
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: We find that #ClimateChange has already doubled the risk of a California megaflood (since 1920). Each half of a degree of…
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: We also consider the role of #ClimateChange in increasing the risk of California megafloods. Large pluvials have, of cour…
We find that #ClimateChange has already doubled the risk of a California megaflood (since 1920). Each half of a degree of additional global warming will lead to appreciable further increases in risk moving forward through the 21st century. #CAflood https:/
We also consider the role of #ClimateChange in increasing the risk of California megafloods. Large pluvials have, of course, occurred in California since time immemorial. But we find that climate change is sharply upping the odds. (12/n) #CAwx https://t.co
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: For context: the work and findings presented here represent the first phase of the broader #ARkStorm2 project, a multi-ye…
RT @Weather_West: These scenarios are drawn from a climate model large ensemble (CESM-LENS), using a high-resolution weather model (WRF) em…
RT @Weather_West: Subsequently, we find very large increases in peak runoff during ARkFuture vs ARkHist: 60-100% higher statewide & locally…
RT @Weather_West: We also consider the large-scale conditions that coincide with simulated California megafloods. Intriguingly, 8 of the 8…
RT @Weather_West: Further, few if any of these #ElNiño events are east-based: they have a more Central Pacific focus (so-called #ElNiño Mod…
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
RT @Weather_West: First, it means that there may be seasonal predictability of risk--since there's a strong tilt toward moderate-strong #El…
RT @Weather_West: New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in…
First, it means that there may be seasonal predictability of risk--since there's a strong tilt toward moderate-strong #ElNiño years. Second, megafloods are more likely to occur in years with wet antecedent conditions--amplifying flood risk. (11/n) https://
Further, few if any of these #ElNiño events are east-based: they have a more Central Pacific focus (so-called #ElNiño Modoki). This has a couple of important implications... (10/n) https://t.co/z5n9h3ZUhk
We also consider the large-scale conditions that coincide with simulated California megafloods. Intriguingly, 8 of the 8 top events in present and future climates occur during warm ENSO (#ElNiño) conditions, and 7/8 during moderate to strong events. (9/n)
Subsequently, we find very large increases in peak runoff during ARkFuture vs ARkHist: 60-100% higher statewide & locally 3-400% higher in Sacramento & (especially) San Joaquin basins as more precip falls overall & much greater fraction falls a
These scenarios are drawn from a climate model large ensemble (CESM-LENS), using a high-resolution weather model (WRF) embedded within climate model conditions to produce realistic "synthetic weather forecasts" in present and future climates. #CAwx https:/
For context: the work and findings presented here represent the first phase of the broader #ARkStorm2 project, a multi-year, cross-institutional effort involving multiple @UofCalifornia campuses, @DRIScience, @USGS, @CA_DWR, & @NCAR_Science. (2/n) http
New work co-led by @xingyhuang and me on the rising risk of a California #megaflood due to #ClimateChange is out today in @ScienceAdvances! This paper also describes the new #ARkStorm2 scenarios in detail, & will be the basis for ongoing work. (Thread:
The paper has a calm discussion of adaptation strategies that I cite next. (1/3) https://t.co/2wweRr7I1l
RT @ScienceAdvances: A new modeling study suggests #ClimateChange may have already doubled the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in Calif…
‘Recent evidence suggests that further warming and shifts in natural variability will eventually “unmask” accumulated increase in regional flood risk’ Probability is like gravity. https://t.co/25JmRe7dav
RT @ScienceAdvances: A new modeling study suggests #ClimateChange may have already doubled the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in Calif…
RT @ScienceAdvances: A new modeling study suggests #ClimateChange may have already doubled the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in Calif…
It will rain on California again. It might decide to Pineapple Express on top of a large snowpack: lets watch that melt real fast (1969) It will rain again. Caskets wash out of the cemetery, 1982 Tujunga. 1998 El Niño destruction- not even barely a 25 ye
RT @ScienceAdvances: A new modeling study suggests #ClimateChange may have already doubled the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in Calif…
Rapidly rising risk of catastrophic flooding in California. New from @Weather_West in @ScienceAdvances https://t.co/ktboFUUEiM
A new modeling study suggests #ClimateChange may have already doubled the likelihood of catastrophic flooding in California, and future warming will likely result in even greater increases in #flood risk. https://t.co/xzTqrZVysh https://t.co/KUS96JhBhn